Putin spoke highly of the Russian victory, which means a new war is imminent？

BEIJING, Feb. 19 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun, Zhang Aolin) On February 17, local time, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the Russian army had completely controlled Avdeev Ka, an important town in Donetsk region, and greatly pushed the Russian front line westward. According to international public opinion, the occupation of Avdeev Card by Russian troops is as important as the Battle of Bakhmut in May 2023.

It will be two years since the Ukrainian crisis broke out, and the Ukrainian counterattack has been frustrated repeatedly. Now that the control of Avdeev Card has changed hands, does a series of changes mark the turning point of the situation in Russia and Ukraine? Putin congratulated the Russian army on its "great victory". What kind of signal did he release? Next, what other key battles are worthy of attention on the Russian-Ukrainian front?

In this regard, Zhongxin.com invited Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the China Academy of Social Sciences, to conduct an in-depth interpretation.

Another "strong fortress" was breached.

Earlier news from the Russian Defense Ministry said that in the past few weeks, the Russian army continued to advance toward Avdeev Card. Although the Ukrainian army tried to hold on, it "fled" under the threat that the Russian army would cut off supplies and retreat, and it was 24 hours after the "flight" that the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army issued the withdrawal order.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, since 2014, the Ukrainian army has been consolidating the strategic position of Avdeev Card, and has invested a lot of resources and energy in the local area, turning this population center into a "strong fortress".

Through this campaign, the Russian army controlled about 32 square kilometers of land, and pushed forward the front of the troops greatly, keeping the fire line away from the local central city-Donetsk, thus ensuring that it was free from Ukrainian attacks.

Zhang Hong said that before, Avdeev Card was an important military fortress built by Ukrainian troops for a long time among the few areas still controlled by Ukrainian troops in Donetsk. "It is like a’ wedge’ inserted into Donetsk, the capital of Donetsk, which is of vital military significance to the surrounding area and the whole Donbass region."

Data map: Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin spoke highly of it, which is meaningful.

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Russian army on its success after hearing the report on its control of Avdeev Card, and commented that "this is an important victory".

What kind of signal did Putin’s statement release? Zhang Hong pointed out that this victory has, to a certain extent, eased the multiple pressures on Russia:

The first is the safety pressure.

First of all, the battle between Russia and Ukraine in Avdeev Ka, an important town in Donetsk region, lasted for one year and nine months. It was a breakthrough and a major military victory for the Russian army to seize this region after paying a great price of casualties.

Zhang Hong pointed out that Avdeev Card is only about 10 kilometers away from Donetsk, the capital of Donetsk. Earlier, the Ukrainian army’s shelling of the city of Donetsk caused security pressure on Russia. The Russian victory means that the security environment in the Russian-controlled area of Donetsk will be greatly improved.

The second is political pressure.

Zhang Hong believes that if the normal life of the people in the Russian-controlled area of Donetsk cannot be guaranteed, it will undoubtedly cause a kind of political pressure on Russia. When Russian troops captured the Avdeev card area, Putin’s congratulations were on the one hand military, and on the other hand showed the political will to control the relevant areas for a long time.

He further pointed out that, especially in March 2024, the four Russian-controlled states of Wudong are expected to vote in the Russian presidential election, and voting after the Russian army takes control of Avdeev card will help to strengthen Russian social support for Putin in the general election, add a heavy stroke to enhancing Putin’s political prestige, and also contribute to the morale and unity of the Russian army.

Therefore, congratulations to the Russian army on this victory convey Putin’s firm political stance and determination to carry out special military operations in Ukraine.

Data map: Ukrainian soldiers fired with howitzers.　

Russia "promotes peace through war" and puts pressure on Ukraine and the West.

Zhang Hong believes that the victory of the Russian army has multiple meanings.

Specifically, first, from June 2023, when the Ukrainian army began its "big counterattack", it tried to continuously create security pressure on the Russian-controlled areas. If the Russian army captured the Donetsk region, it would mean that on the Ukrainian front, the Russian army’s battlefield initiative was more flexible and expanded.

Second, the end of the battle in Avdeev actually means that Russia is transforming its military initiative into its diplomatic initiative.

Zhang Hong pointed out that the West and Ukraine have always refused to negotiate with Russia and have no dialogue with Putin. Therefore, Russia has kept moving forward through small military breakthroughs, and regards military advancement as one of the important means of exerting pressure on the West, raising the pressure on the West and Ukraine and "promoting peace through war."

He believes that the victory of Russian troops in Avdeev Card is, to some extent, an important symbol of the escalation of the diplomatic game between Russia and the West.

Third, Zhang Hong analyzed that the Avdeev card itself may not necessarily change the stability of the Russian-Ukrainian defense line in Donbass, but it just exposes the weakness of the West in aiding Ukraine.

Zhang Hong noted that recently, American and Western aid to Ukraine has a tendency to slow down and shrink in scale. In this regard, he pointed out that fighting not only tests manpower, but also tests the strength of equipment and logistics. In fact, the lack of military assistance is one of the most important reasons why the Ukrainian army lost in Avdeev.

Data Map: Ukrainian President Zelensky.

The withdrawal of the Ukrainian army will trigger a new war?

Although Sergey called the withdrawal "to avoid being besieged and protect the lives and health of soldiers" and Uzbek President Zelensky also said that "the decision to withdraw troops was correct", Sputnik quoted a senior Pentagon official as saying that the situation in Avdeev card may be a "precursor of new failure" for Ukrainian troops.

The official also said, "We see that Ukrainians are running out of key materials, especially ammunition. If additional funds are not available, in many locations on the front line, the (Ukrainian) troops will also run out of materials. "

Since February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian crisis has been about two years old. Does the defeat of the Ukrainian army at this important node mean that the turning point of the situation is coming soon?

In this regard, Zhang Hong pointed out that Russia and Ukraine are now deadlocked on the battlefield and in political dialogue, and there is no process of quantitative change to qualitative change. It is still inconclusive how this crisis will end. However, the possibility of Ukraine continuing to counterattack militarily is actually getting smaller and smaller.

He also pointed out several trends worthy of attention:

First, Donbass is the main direction of Russian attack now. From Malinka to Avdeev, the next important place for confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian armies may be Bakhmut.

Russia may have to completely remove a series of Ukrainian positions around Donetsk, thus achieving security control over the entire Donbass region.

Second, Belgorod State in southern Russia continues to be attacked and shelled by Ukrainian rockets, and Russia should take measures to strengthen its response.

Zhang Hong noted that Putin had proposed the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" in Uzbekistan in early 2024. Public opinion believes that this means that a certain range of areas will be demarcated in Uzbekistan, and demilitarization will be implemented to ease the current tension.

At the same time, he analyzed that it is not ruled out that in the future, the Russian army will consume and destroy Uzbekistan’s national defense industrial capability and combat capability by increasing the crackdown on some important military bases and key infrastructure of the Ukrainian army, so as to force the Ukrainian army to reduce its military harassment in southern Russia. (End)